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To 3G or not to 3G, that is the question that I ask of thee
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In this week's issue of Signals Ahead we provided quantitative economic results that highlight the relative merits of an operator remaining with 2G versus upgrading to a 3G network technology. We provide transition economic results for the GSM/GPRS to UMTS/HSPA migration and for the 1X to 1X/EV-DO migration, thus providing operators and the entire wireless industry with a quantitative means of evaluating the merits of 3G wireless technologies. In doing this 2G versus 3G comparative analysis, we provide results at the CMA level for the US market, thus demonstrating a very granular approach that quantifies the different economic results that can be achieved based entirely on the differences in population and morphologies that exist. The work that we present in this issue leverages the work that we are doing for our upcoming 700/1700MHz study which we hope to publish in the coming months. Specific findings and topics covered in this issue include the following:
The Darkness. During the transition period when subscribers are switching to the new network it is typically the case that the composite (2G/3G) unit costs increase since, in effect, two networks are being used to support the same amount of traffic.
The Dawn. If one assumes that subscriber usage on the 3G network increases due to the availability of voice and data bucket plans, it is possible to demonstrate that network delivery costs on a unit basis ($/Min, $/MB) can appreciably decrease from what it would have cost with only the 2G network in place.
Show me the data rates. We demonstrate that it is actually possible to achieve a compelling data experience, as defined by the estimated user data rate, with a 3G network deployed as an overlay on an existing 2G network that was originally designed for basic voice services. This is especially true if the subscriber uses a desktop modem (3G + Wi-Fi) to improve in-building coverage.
Sep 19, 2008
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