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Game Theory and the 700MHz auction
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| Although Auction 73 for 62MHz of spectrum within the 700MHz band is confined to the United States and certain of its territories, we believe that the results of the auction will have worldwide implications. For one, ultimately, infrastructure and device suppliers from all over the world will be competing for a piece of the action. For another, the technology decisions that the winning bidders make will, or at least could, ripple into other markets where 700MHz spectrum will eventually become available.
In this week's issue of Signals Ahead we offer our thoughts on some likely auction results for each of the available blocks and their subsequent implications.
* The A and B Block. Given the geographic size of these blocks and the list of qualified bidders we envision that most of the bidders will be focused solely on these blocks. With only 10MHz of spectrum the choice of air interface and targeted services will be especially important. Winning bidders will look to the C Block and D Block winners to take the lead and determine the technology of choice.
* The C Block. Two major operators are the most likely to go after at least eight of the REAG licenses, although one of them needs it more than the other. The "package bidding provision" allows an operator to introduce a bit of game theory and block the buildout of a competitor's nationwide OFDMA network. Further, the "open platform" requirement may fall by the wayside, lose its teeth, or become virtually impossible and confusing to enforce.
* The D Block. Conventional wisdom suggests that with the departure of Frontline Wireless that the D Block will fail to get auctioned. Although a distinct possibility, we envision another scenario in which a company with a history of being a whole/retail supplier of telecommunications services walks away with the prize.
* The E Block. Qualcomm's MediaFLO is the odds-on favorite to win the block. If true, the company would be paying a hefty premium for the spectrum relative to what it paid for the D Block spectrum that it currently owns. The pending outcome of the C Block auction and the yet-to-be determined success or failure of mobile TV have a significant impact on the "value" that should be placed on the E Block.
* Shot across the bow. Activities within 3GPP suggest that this organization is gearing up to fire a shot across the bow of the Mobile WiMAX community. We discuss. |
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