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Decisions by Verizon, Ericsson sow seeds of doubt over LTE/4G
3G Wireless Broadband
April 25, 2007
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Apparently unconnected decisions by U.S. operator Verizon Wireless and European equipment vendor Ericsson have fueled speculation about the technology choices for evolved 3G and future 4G networks and threaten to deepen the ideological schism between equipment vendors.
Earlier this month, Verizon Wireless joined the European Telecommunications Standards Institute and became an individual member of 3GPP, prompting speculation that the carrier might choose LTE for its mobile broadband evolution rather than continue down the 3GPP2 path to UMB.
If Verizon does choose LTE over UMB, analysts say it is unlikely that UMB development would continue, because the market would be too small.
Meanwhile, Ericsson's decision to pull out of WiMAX development - one the company has now confirmed, after recent press speculation - has further exposed a rift among vendors over the shape of so-called 4G networks, and it looks likely to deepen the divide between those preferring to follow the WCDMA/LTE path and those favoring mobile WiMAX.
Ericsson says it will remain a member of the WiMAX Forum and continue to support the technology where required. It has said, however, that despite having invested in the basic research, it doesn't see "volumes in the market" for WiMAX. The company wanted to focus resources where it would get "the most bang for our buck," Mikael Persson, Ericsson's manager of WCDMA strategy and business, was quoted as saying.
But observers have questioned Ericsson's motivation. "Ericsson might have been expected to retain WiMAX in its strategy, in order to cover as many network bases as possible in its multi-technology world," said Caroline Gabriel, research director at Rethink Research. "So the exclusion of 802.16 looks like a calculated political gesture, designed to sway the climate of opinion against WiMAX and stack the odds in favor of a 4G where Ericsson's chosen systems are in the lead."
Unlike Nokia, its Scandinavian neighbor, by remaining too LTE-centric, Ericsson risks failing to embrace the all-IP world and thus extending its user base beyond its traditional cellular carriers, Gabriel adds.
"Among the other major vendors, Motorola and Nortel have to remain committed to WiMAX because they have sidelined or exited UMTS," Gabriel said. "In the medium term, they have the fallback plan - should WiMAX fail - of their aggressive LTE-development plans and claim the experience of creating 802.16e systems will give them a head start in this technology and, implicitly, 4G."
Verizon undecided
Verizon Wireless remains open-minded about its technology direction. Company spokesman Jeffrey Nelson said there was no time frame for deciding whether to go down the LTE or UWB route but said, "The 4G bake-off is well under way, and this is a sign that the ovens are on."
"We are taking our time to get our technology selection right, and that means exposing ourselves to as broad a group of technologies and experts as possible," Nelson said. "We want to have discussions with as many of our peers as possible. It's all part of the information-gathering process."
Mike Thelander, of U.S.-based research gr |
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